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THE RETAILER FORUM

GREAT EXPECTATIONS

October 2026

3 Shifts Shaping Your Holiday Shopper

Jennifer Shaheen

The shopping season brings natural expectations for customers, and what we need to be prepared for this year as independent retail jewelry stores is that your customers will be shopping with more intention than in years past.

Mintel’s 2026 winter holiday outlook describes this shopper as high-intent and high-expectation, someone committed to buying but who wants value, convenience, personalization, and emotional reassurance before making a purchase. That is a demanding customer. It is also exactly the customer an independent jeweler is built to serve.

Here are the three shifts in buyer psychology that are shaping how shoppers research, decide, and spend this season.

Uneek
18K white gold pear-shaped blue
sapphire with round diamonds
MSRP $8,805
uneek.com
213.622.5119

1. The Research Starts Long Before the Season Does

The impulse buy still exists, but it is no longer the primary focus of spending. Nowadays, holiday shoppers plan ahead. Data from Basis and GWI shows that 71% of consumers used at least one digital resource—such as search, social media, or AI—to find gift ideas last season. Salesforce forecasts that 38% of holiday retail revenue this year will come from hybrid sales, where digital research, AI tools, or mobile browsing directly influence instore purchases.

Pay special attention to this number: nearly 4 in 10 holiday dollars go through a digital research phase before landing in a store. That is your sale to win, and most of it gets decided before anyone touches your door handle.

Action: Publish your holiday gift guide in October, not December. Make sure your product pages include real details: price, materials, sizing, availability, turnaround time for custom work, and FAQs. Make product review requests a standing part of your post-purchase routine, along with local Google reviews, because a shopper comparing three stores needs proof that does not come from you.

Jewelry Innovations
Serinium® domed ring 14K gold inlay satin finish
MSRP $1,407
jewelryinnovations.com
800.872.6840

Tesoro by KIM
14K fashion ring with a ribbed band with a single lab grown baguette diamond
MSRP $2,700
kimint.com
800.275.5555

2. They Decide with Emotion, Then Justify With Logic

Holiday jewelry is rarely a rational purchase, and it should not be sold like one. 72% of US adults plan to buy gifts this season, and more than half say their top goal is a gift that feels meaningful or personal. This an opportunity for jewelry retailers and their sales teams.

McKinsey’s State of Fashion 2026 reports that jewelry is growing at more than four times the rate of clothing by unit sales, driven by consumers seeking lasting value, self-expression, and permission to buy for themselves.

What your buyer needs from you is both halves of the decision. Lead with the occasion and its meaning, then give them the logic that supports the choice: gemstone and metal sourcing, craftsmanship, certification, warranty, and a clear return policy. Those details do not create the desire. They defend it. They give your customer the language to explain the purchase to themselves and to everyone who asks about it later.

Action: Train your team to ask about the person and moment before they ask about budget. A gift buyer and a self-purchaser standing at the same jewelry case are two completely different conversations, and starting with a price point can shut down the conversation.

Epoque
14K diamond
orbit bracelet
MSRP $7,800
epoquejewelry.com
888.855.8000

3. Your Customer Is Editing Their Spending, Not Cutting It

Value-seeking is mistaken for bargain hunting, and that mistake costs independent jewelers’ real revenue. Deloitte’s research found that 4 in 10 Americans now show consistent cost-conscious behaviors, including 23% of households earning $200,000 or more. But editing is not retreating. Zeta’s survey of 7,600 shoppers found that more than half plan to spend over $500 on gifts this season, and 1 in 3 expect to spend $1,000 or more. Your customer still has money for jewelry gifts. They are simply more deliberate about where it goes and what it’s worth.

Action: Compete on perceived value rather than price. Be specific about quality: where your stones come from, who makes the pieces you carry, and whether they offer forever sizing or cleaning. Then take a look at your loyalty program. If your best customers only come back during a promotion, you have trained them on discount. Move those rewards toward early access, personal outreach, and milestone recognition instead.

Great Expectations Are Good News

Jewelry already sits at the intersection of all three shifts. It is intentional, emotional, and valued. You do not need to change what you sell to meet this moment. You need to make the reasoning behind it visible earlier, in more places, and in plainer language than you have in previous years.

Midas Chain
Multi shape 14K link push lock necklace
MSRP $3,699
midaschain.com
201.244.1150

Armadani
14K oval door knocker drop earrings
MSRP $2,200
armadani.com
888.234.8340

Sources Mintel, “US Winter Holiday Shopping: Recap and Outlook 2026,”, Basis, “2026 Holiday Shopping and Advertising Trends Report,” 2026, Salesforce, “2026 Holiday Predictions: A Unified Yet Fractured Journey, McKinsey, “The State of Fashion 2026,” 2026, Deloitte, “Understanding the Value-Seeking Consumer,” 2025. , Zeta Global, “2026 Holiday Shopping Trends,” 2026

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